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NOAA tropical outlook for the Atlantic

Figured id share this with everyone wondering what the long range forecast is looking like:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

 

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND

SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM

CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS

CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A

MEDIUM CHANCE…40 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10

MPH.

 

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN PUERTO RICO

AND BERMUDA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAIN DISORGANIZED…AND ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW

CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A LOW CHANCE…10

PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

 

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS

ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT…

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