Ocean City

What you have to remember is that most of the properties down are 2nd homes.People are losing money on an investment,not being thrown out on the street from their primary homes.

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Gee who could have seen this coming.

Over building, over supply, over priced who would have thought it would reach a tipping point. The bubble burst what a shock.

Now you not only run the risk of losing value on your primary residence but you can also see the value of your second home sinking. Sort of a double whammy..............

Plus you would have a tough time dumping your OC property under today's market conditions. Who would buy it?

Some might run the risk of finding their mortgages higher then the value of their property.

As far as buying NOW well tough to figure out where the bottom IS or will be so you might not want to get on the elevator going down when you don't know just how far down you might be going.

The real estate problems including that in OC are long from over. I feel sorry for anyone who bought in the last few years at top price with full financing.
It will be a long hard road..........

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How to Profit From a Cooling Real Estate Market
by Robert Kiyosaki

Posted on Monday, June 12, 2006, 12:00AM
All over the U.S. there are stories of a rise in real estate foreclosures. Many people who took those exotic mortgages -- borrowing 125% of home value or choosing adjustable-rate mortgages -- are struggling to make their payments, and some aren't making it.

Also, a glut of new property supply, especially condominiums, is coming on line. A friend of mine, a very seasoned real estate investor, says in San Diego County, once one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, thousands of new condominiums are getting ready to come to market -- just as the market softens. He estimates that over 12,000 new units are coming on line, and the market, at the best of times, can only absorb about 1,000 condominiums a year. If he's correct, that means 12 years of supply will be ready for market in the next year.

As interest rates rise and the number of eager new buyers begins to diminish, adding supply to an already bad real estate market for sellers may mean a very good market for buyers and for property investors.

Hungry Alligators

The people who are in the most trouble are flippers -- people who aim to buy low and sell high within a short space of time. Many were buying condominiums off the plans, which means the projects were yet to be built, in the hopes that when the homes were completed, they would sell for a tidy profit. The trouble is many of these flippers, lured into the market by stories of people making a huge killing earlier with a similar strategy, are now the ones to be slaughtered. Now, they either lose their deposit or have to cough up the money for the purchase in the hopes there's a greater fool than they were somewhere out there real estate.

If you recall, the same thing happened around the year 2000 as amateurs jumped into the stock market, buying up tech stocks or any IPO with a dot-com after the company name.

In the coming months, I predict we'll see an increase in people dumping real estate they can't afford. They'll be forced to sell because they'll be eaten alive by a phenomenon known as negative cash flow. Investment properties that you have to feed money to every month are fondly known as alligators -- if you can't afford to feed the property every month, it eats you.

I know of one so-called real estate investor (and I prefer to call people like him speculators rather than investors) who has three homes he thought he could flip for a profit -- but he priced them too high. Now, $7,500 comes out of his pocket every month to feed the negative-cash-flow alligators. The problem is, he and his wife don't earn that much a month. Their three alligators are literally eating them out of house and home, consuming the profits they made from other flips -- and their savings.

To add more pain to the misery, they still have to pay the capital-gain taxes they made from their previous successful flips. They're toast. The alligators are eating them alive. They can't afford to feed them, and they can't afford to sell them because the prices they paid for these alligators are more than they're worth today. And this is only one story -- out of who knows how many. Over the next couple of years, keep your eyes open for some great bargains.

It's Time for the Pros

Some people say we're now entering a bad real estate market. I disagree. I think we're entering a great market. A bad one is when amateur investors become real estate experts and they bid up prices. They make housing expensive for homeowners, often adding little to no value to the property. They simply muddy the waters and make a valuable investment, a home, expensive.

Now, I must admit, I sometimes do buy to flip, so I can't be too critical. Yet it's the amateurs who come late to the party -- and who eventually donate their money back to the professionals. What I'm saying is: Now is the time to turn pro. Now is not the time to be an amateur. It's the amateurs who jump in when the market is hot. It's the professional who comes in when it's cooling down. Get the message?

When the red-hot bull market of real estate was beginning to overheat, you didn't have time to make considered decisions. Sellers were receiving multiple, over-asking-price offers. In a bull market, you had to be quick, have money, and be a little foolish. Now that the market is cooling down, sellers are a little bit more humble. You have more time and can do your due diligence carefully. You can negotiate better terms and make a better deal, especially if the seller has his leg inside an alligator's jaws.

Bad News That's Good

But don't be in too much of a hurry. I think we still have some bad news yet to come -- and I believe it may come from the bond market. I suspect that many of our foreign investors who have been buying our debt may be becoming more cautious about investing in American assets, especially U.S. bonds. Many foreign bankers may be having doubts about the U.S. government paying the interest on our debt. In other words, many investors will be moving increasingly out of their cash into tangible assets such as gold, silver, and other metals. Again, this is only a suspicion. We should know more by September of this year.

If investors stop buying U.S. government debt, who knows what might happen? The U.S. may need to raise interest rates even higher, which will drive home values down even further. So be patient, keep looking at real estate, but keep your hand on your wallet (unless of course you find a seller with a really mean alligator eating him alive).

A year ago, I sent out a warning to investors, especially flippers, to cash out quickly. I received a lot of irate e-mails from people who thought I was turning on them. They thought I was spreading bad news. Little did they know that by forecasting a real estate downturn, I was spreading good news -- good news for real investors and bad news for amateur alligator wrestlers

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House prices seen falling 30 pct
By Julie Haviv
Thu Dec 6, 6:41 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Housing markets from Punta Gorda, Florida, to Stockton, California, will crash and suffer price drops of more than 30 percent before the housing crisis is over, a report from Moody's Economy.com said on Thursday.

On a national level, the housing market recession will continue through early 2009, said the report, co-authored by Mark Zandi, chief economist, and Celia Chen, director of housing economics.

The report paints a worsening picture of the hard-hit housing sector, which is in the midst of its worst downturn since World War II.

While activity will stabilize in 2009, it will not be until 2010 before a measurable improvement in sales, construction and pricing will emerge, the report said.

House prices are forecast to fall 13 percent from their peak through early 2009. After accounting for incentives home sellers are offering buyers, effective declines peak-to-trough will total well over 15 percent, the report said.

Punta Gorda, Florida, and Stockton, California, are the hardest hit markets in the U.S., with price declines from peak-to-trough forecast at 35.3 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively.

"This is the most severe housing recession since the post-World War II period," Zandi told Reuters.

These markets have been hard hit due to several reasons, namely the exiting of investors from the areas, a fair amount of subprime mortgage loans causing an increase in foreclosures and overbuilding by home builders, Zandi told Reuters.

Home sales, however, should hit a bottom in early 2008, which will mark a 40 percent drop from peak-to-trough.

"The housing market's most fundamental problem is it is awash in unsold inventory," the report said.

In addition, the housing downturn will take a large toll on the rest of the economy. During the height of the boom in 2004-05, housing contributed nearly a percentage point to annual real gross domestic product, or GDP, growth.

In the current downturn, housing will subtract more than one percentage point from U.S. economic growth this year, and a percentage point and a half in 2008, with the effect on growth seen most pronounced next spring and early summer.

"The intensifying housing recession is expected to weigh on the broader economy, but not break it," the report said.

The Moody's Economy.com's report, titled "Aftershock: Housing in the Wake of the Mortgage Meltdown," said that when house prices hit their nadir, some 80 of the nation's 381 metropolitan areas will experience a double-digit peak-to-trough price decline.

Price declines, however, will vary in degree throughout the nation, with more than a 15 percent peak-to-trough expected around Washington and Detroit.

Significant declines are also expected throughout most of Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. During the housing market's heyday, speculative activity was rampant in these areas, causing prices to surge much higher than other regions.

The Northeast corridor, and markets such as Boise, Idaho, along with Denver and Salt Lake City, will experience between 5 percent and 15 percent declines. In the rest of the industrial Midwest and parts of the Mountain and Pacific Northwest, prices will fall more modestly.

While some point to rising default rates in the subprime mortgage market, which caters to borrowers with poor credit histories, as the root cause of the problems plaguing the housing market, Moody's Economy.com said an unwieldy supply of unsold homes is the prime factor.

The U.S. Census Bureau said that, as of the third quarter of 2007, there were close to 2.1 million vacant unsold homes for sale, equal to 2.6 percent of the stock of owner-occupied homes.

A well-functioning housing market has a substantial amount of inventory, but in the quarter century between the early 1980s and mid-2000s, the vacancy rate stayed near 1.7 percent.

The difference between the two vacancy rates provides a good estimate of the amount of excess inventory in the market, which currently totals nearly 750,000 homes and is by far the highest level of excess inventory in the post-World War II period, Moody's Economy.com said.

Moody's Economy.com, which is based in West Chester, Pennsylvania, is an independent subsidiary of Moody's Corp and provides economic research and consulting services to businesses, governments and other institutions.

(Editing by Diane Craft)

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This same thing happened when they first built all the high rise condos in Northern OC in the late 70s, early 80s.

Now, there are condos and big houses in Southern and West Ocean City that sit empty.

Aren't we all glad they tore down Shanty Town? Those big empty houses look so much better.

I suppose it's progress.

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I know what you are saying however I disagree. The development of
THOSE condos was done without deystroying the charm of Ocean City. The building going on now, takes place mostly with the destruction of many of OC's restaurants, retail shops, and other attractions.

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That's true Dean.

I was just making the point that people are so quick to sell real estate, they build and build and build without getting sellers.

Those houses where Shanty Town once stood are the perfect example.

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I know Shanty Town was in desperate need of upkeep, but I loved it. It was a charming part of OC. I found the Shamrock Shanty shop in Sept. when we were down, and it's not near as charming as it used to be. And about half the size. I wonder, did any of the other former Shanty Town stores relocate in OC?
I'm just hoping that they don't do anything to the little shops in the inlet. We're older and don't ride the rides, but enjoy walking down the boardwalk in the evening and going through all those little shops. That's where I spend my souvenier money in OC.

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Ah, don't worry. Our government will be bailing these millionaires out with our tax dollars soon enough. In a few short years, when everything rebounds, these millionaires can continue their greedy destruction of OC and the further elimination of the great city's character. Pretty soon, none of us normal working folks will be able to take our families there, everything we knew and loved will be gone.

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